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Forecasting with Bayesian Modeling

Time Series Modeling with TensorFlow Probability you own this product

This project is part of the liveProject series Time Series Forecasting with Bayesian Modeling
prerequisites
basics of TensorFlow
skills learned
structural time series modeling • forecasting and detecting anomalies • conduct Bayesian Switchpoint Analysis
Michael Grogan
1 week · 4-6 hours per week · ADVANCED
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liveProject This project is part of the liveProject series Time Series Forecasting with Bayesian Modeling liveProjects give you the opportunity to learn new skills by completing real-world challenges in your local development environment. Solve practical problems, write working code, and analyze real data—with liveProject, you learn by doing. These self-paced projects also come with full liveBook access to select books for 90 days plus permanent access to other select Manning products.

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In this liveProject, you’ll combine the power of deep learning with probabilistic modeling. You’ll build a structural time series model that can develop probabilistic forecasts of hotel cancellations, and use this model to identify anomalies across your cancellation data. You’ll perform a similar analysis of an air passenger dataset, and then use Bayesian Switchpoint analysis to determine the approximate time interval in which searches for the term “vacation” declined.
This project is designed for learning purposes and is not a complete, production-ready application or solution.

book resources

When you start your liveProject, you get full access to the following books for 90 days.

project author

Michael Grogan
Michael Grogan is a data scientist with expertise in TensorFlow and time series analysis. His educational background is a Master's degree in Economics from University College Cork, Ireland. As such, much of his work has been in the domain of business intelligence, i.e. using machine learning technologies to develop solutions to a wide range of business problems. He has implemented time series solutions for organizations across a range of industries through the implementation of statistical analysis as well as more advanced machine learning methodologies. In addition, he has delivered numerous seminars and training courses in the areas of data science and machine learning, including for Manning and O'Reilly Media.

prerequisites

This liveProject is for data analysts with a basic understanding of TensorFlow and an intermediate understanding of time series and probability methodologies. To begin this liveProject, you will need to be familiar with:

TOOLS
  • Intermediate Python knowledge (pandas, NumPy)
  • Intermediate scikit-learn
  • Basics of TensorFlow
TECHNIQUES
  • Intermediate time series methodologies
  • Intermediate probability and statistical theory

you will learn

In this liveProject, you’ll develop different scenario forecasts with the TensorFlow Probability library.

  • Structural time series modeling
  • Forecast and detect anomalies
  • Bayesian Switchpoint Analysis

features

Self-paced
You choose the schedule and decide how much time to invest as you build your project.
Project roadmap
Each project is divided into several achievable steps.
Get Help
While within the liveProject platform, get help from other participants and our expert mentors.
Compare with others
For each step, compare your deliverable to the solutions by the author and other participants.
book resources
Get full access to select books for 90 days. Permanent access to excerpts from Manning products are also included, as well as references to other resources.
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